done deal

I think Obama's going to take this one. So many people range from annoyed to irate at the (mis)behavior and missteps of George W. that, fair or not, this fall they'll vote anything but Republican to make a statement.

The current economic situation doesn't help. Large swaths of both blue and red states are now feeling the pain in their pocketbooks (where it really counts for Americans) and looking for immediate relief. Whether any presidential candidate can actually reverse the current recession quickly is up for serious debate, but a vote for something different feels proactive.

This election also taps into our own self-identities. If I vote for another old white guy, I'm boring and racist. If I vote for a young, charismatic black guy I'm progressive and open-minded. This self-concept issue fed the long battle between Hillary and Obama; for the first time, a vote could implicitly support women's rights or civil rights--which to choose?

I'm actually neutral on Obama; if you read this blog regularly at all you shouldn't be surprised that I'm not voting Republican on auto-pilot. I haven't decided who to vote for yet. But I am saying it doesn't matter--Obama will win. An axiom of change management is that people will passively and actively resist change until the consequences of the status quo become less bearable than the pain of changing. Obama's campaign, encouraging us to "vote for change," hinges on the bet that millions of Americans are hurting enough to try something new.

I think he's right and, unless a scandal emerges, I'd say the election is already decided; now it's just five more months of annoying commercials.